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Arab Nations Attack Israel
The areas surrounding two autonomous Palestinian cities on the bluffs east of the coastal cities of Tel Aviv, Netanya, and Haifa, will play a major role in the future attack of a confederation of Arab nations against Israel. Approximately 70% of Israel’s Jewish population lives in the coastal zone to the west of these bluffs, with most of that being concentrated in Haifa, Tel Aviv, and Netanya. About 80% of Israel’s industrial productivity is also in this area, as well as many important military installations. These high elevations, surrounding the two Palestinian controlled cities of Tul Karm and Kalkilya (Qalqilya), stratigically dominate the coastal zones from a military standpoint, sitting on the Sharon bluff of the western Samarian and Judean Mountains. The Palestinians have been sneaking in thousands of katyusha rockets through tunnels under the Egyptian border. The rockets then pass through the Palestinian controlled Gaza Strip, and eventually end up in the areas around Tul Karm and Kalkilya. I expect the IDF to eventually raid these areas, but with only limited success. The Palestinians have also been smuggling some katyushas across the Jordan River at night. They move them westward through the dendritic openings of the eastern Judean and Samarian Mountains. They eventually pass through the highlands around Jenin, Nablus, and south of Afula. Some are hidden in the caves around Jenin for launching against Israel forces that would come north through the Jordan Valley to repulse the Syrian attack from the north. But the main weaponry smuggled into these areas consists of antitank shoulder launchers, which have been concealed in these zones in countless numbers from Afula to Jenin to Nablus to Ramalla. Thousands of kayusha rockets are well hidden in the karst topography around Tul Karm and Kalkilya. The numerous limestone caves in this area often have narrow openings that cannot be identified from the air, and they also can be cleverly concealed from surface detection. The Palestinians can rapidly recover these rockets in the event of an all out war. They can be quickly installed on the rear of a long based truck, where their mobility will increase the difficulty of detection by Israel’s aircraft. Katyusha rockets do not have a long range potential, but are deadly accurate at distances less than 100 miles. The air distances of Tul Karm and Kalkilya from Haifa, Netanya, and Tel Aviv varies from as little as 20 miles, to as much as 60 miles, which is certainly within the range of fantastic accurary for the katyusha rockets. When the future surprise attack is launched against Israel from the north from Syria and Lebanon, thousands of these rockets will shower down on the coastal population from Tel Aviv to Haifa. This surprise attack by a confederation of Islamic nations will be greatly aided by the well coordinated internal attack of the Palestinians, and will make it possible for Israel to be driven into the Negev south of Beersheva. I believe it is likely that this attack will occur only after Israel has been lulled into a false sense of security. I am persuaded it is likely to occur after 2003 begins, and before 2005 ends.